One Advanced Stat For Each Team To Crush Your Fantasy Drafts (+ Prop Bets)

The Fantasy Points Data Suite is the most valuable tool available for bettors and fantasy managers alike. To back up that claim, I’ve used it to pull a stat for all 32 NFL teams with major fantasy football or betting implications.

Feel free to read this article as a typical piece you’d use to prepare for your fantasy drafts. But it’s also full of examples of how you can get the most out of the Data Suite. If you’re feeling inspired, sign up today.

Arizona Cardinals

Among 100 qualifying WRs and TEs, Marvin Harrison Jr. saw the 4th-highest share of his targets on the outside (89%) rather than over the middle of the field. Only Jahan Dotson, Amari Cooper, and George Pickens saw a larger percentage of their targets coming outside.

That’s pretty bad, considering that targets over the middle are on average worth about 22% more yards than targets on the outside, especially after TE Trey McBride just vacuumed up the highest first-read target share by a TE in Fantasy Points Data history (33.6%) in that over-the-middle role.

Zooming in further, Corner and Go routes alone made up nearly a third of Harrison’s route tree as a rookie, his frequency of each ranking above the 74th percentile. And these were by far his two worst routes from a separation perspective, ranking below the 30th percentile on each by Average Separation Score.

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Harrison’s strengths on in-breaking routes and over the middle simply weren’t highlighted during his rookie season. Even after the team favorably adjusted his usage on crossers, his receiving yards per game (YPG) average increased only slightly, from 49.4 to 55.9.

The Cardinals haven’t signed any additional receivers with a history of playing this field-stretcher role and have given no indication they intend to change Harrison’s deployment after retaining the same head coach and play caller. I’ll be generally fading Harrison in favor of players like Davante Adams, Tee Higgins, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or Rashee Rice.

Atlanta Falcons

Across the full 2024 season, Drake London led the NFL in end zone target share, seeing 56% of the Falcons’ end zone targets.

London also commanded six end zone looks across Michael Penix’s three starts. In other words, London averaged 117.3 receiving YPG and 2.0 end zone targets per game with Penix, paces that would have led all WRs over the past four seasons.

Given Penix’s affinity for the deep ball (throwing 20+ yards downfield at the NFL’s 6th-highest rate), the Falcons’ suspect defense, and their only other pass-catcher over six feet tall in Kyle Pitts falling to a career-low 67.4% route participation rate last season, London strikes me as one of the better bets to reach double-digit TDs in 2025.

Recommended Bet: Drake London over 6.5 receiving TDs (Draftkings, -130)

Baltimore Ravens

After a reportedly traumatic August car crash and tightrope surgery the previous November, Mark Andrews ran just a 54.9% route share over the first 9 weeks of 2024, drawing 3.2 targets per game on just an 18% TPRR. All would have represented career lows since his rookie season.

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However, as Andrews’ health improved from Week 10 onward, his route share increased to 66.4%, resulting in 5.0 targets per game on a 24% TPRR, numbers much closer to his career averages. He averaged 14.0 FPG over this stretch (~TE4).

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Some of Andrews’ late-season production was fueled by touchdown efficiency, and we’ve seen mixed results from players returning from Andrews’ injury. However, some other players, like Tony Pollard, have performed worse immediately following the same injury and procedure, only to essentially return to form in the second year.

At Andrews’ TE8 ADP (outside the top-100 overall players on platforms like Underdog), there’s little risk in finding out whether he can return to form as Pollard did and reclaim an every-down role. TEs with multiple previous top-6 fantasy seasons typically experience little to no falloff in production at age 30, which Andrews will be at the start of the season.

Buffalo Bills

Rather than seeing increased playing time as many young players do, Dalton Kincaid’s route share fell from 65.1% (~TE18) as a rookie to just 57.7% (~TE25) during his second season. This stemmed from Kincaid’s inability to function as an inline blocker, meaning he mostly gets on the field in the slot or in 2-TE sets.

But Khalil Shakir broke out in 2024, amassing a career-high 100 targets and ranking top-5 in catch rate on “true” chances (catchable and non-designed targets) while running 73.1% of his routes from the slot. With the slot position occupied, this eliminated one of Kincaid’s only two paths to getting on the field.

And the other didn’t prove fruitful either, as the Bills ranked just 17th in 12-personnel usage (21.4%) despite speculation they’d play significantly more 2-TE sets leading up to 2024.

Kincaid occupies an awkward spot in today’s NFL. He’s not big enough to block like a TE, but not shifty enough to outplay his team’s slot receiver. In other words, as TE guru Max Toscano explains here, Kincaid fails the “WR test,” making it very difficult for him to get on the field in 1-TE sets. (Sure enough, Kincaid ran just a 53.3% route share on plays the Bills were in 11-personnel.)

You can safely skip Kincaid as a late-round flyer in your fantasy drafts.

Carolina Panthers

Looking only at throws deemed “on-target”, Bryce Young’s receivers dropped the most air yards in the NFL last season (210).

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Carolina’s primary outside receivers — Xavier Legette and David Moore — combined for 11 drops while lined up out wide. Coincidentally, that’s the same number of targets Adam Thielen drew from out wide all season (on the occasions the team tried him there out of desperation).

This is to say that Young had no dependable outside wide receivers in 2024. Despite the lack of weapons, he ranked top-10 in accuracy and catchable throw rate on throws traveling 20 or more yards downfield, or top-15 in highly accurate throw rate when targeting an outside receiver (50.7%).

It makes sense, then, that the Panthers elected to use the No. 8 overall pick on X receiver Tetairoa McMillan. WRs drafted inside the top-10 by the NFL since 2021 have averaged ~7.5 targets per game and ~1,012 receiving yards as rookies, reflecting teams’ intentions to give these players ample opportunity early on.

So long as Young’s growth as a passer in 2024 translates into 2025, McMillan has an excellent shot to exceed 800 receiving yards.

Recommended Prop: Tetairoa McMillan over 800.5 receiving yards (DraftKings, +100)

Chicago Bears

D.J. Moore averaged a league-high 2.4 screen targets per game in 2024. Without them, he’d have averaged just 9.5 FPG (~WR57).

This matters because new Bears HC and former Lions playcaller Ben Johnson has typically leaned toward designing screens for his running backs. Even Amon-Ra St. Brown — from Johnson’s favorite slot position — has averaged just 1.0 screen target/game since 2022.

There’s a chance these stats are more a reflection of poor effort in a lost season than Moore’s actual skill, but he was less efficient than Rome Odunze (whose rookie season I’ve panned repeatedly) on “real” (non-screen) routes last year.

If Moore is still the most-skilled WR on the Bears (as I want to believe), he’d crush his WR23 ADP running the St. Brown-esque in-breakers for this offense. But the fact that he can’t bank on screens in 2025 means there’s a wide range of outcomes here, and many worlds exist in which he’s scarcely involved if he’s not so good as to force Johnson to use him over top-40 Draft picks Colston Loveland and Luther Burden.

On non-screens, Moore accumulated only 716 receiving yards in 2024. Sportsbooks have set his season-long yardage total higher than our projection (964.6), so I’m taking the opportunity to hedge here with his under.